| Creators: |
John, Jessel and Engel, Tobias |
| Title: |
Beyond Forecast Accuracy: Decision Support in Supply Chain Management |
| Item Type: |
Conference or Workshop Item |
| Event Title: |
(Proceedings of the) 21st Midwest Association for Information Systems Conference (MWAIS) "The Future of Work: AdaptingT to the Age of AI and Automation" |
| Event Location: |
Athens, OH, USA |
| Event Dates: |
May 21-22, 2026 |
| Projects: |
TTZ Leipheim |
| Paper No. / Type of Paper: |
57 / Research in Progress |
| Date: |
May 2026 |
| Divisions: |
Informationsmanagement |
| Abstract (ENG): |
Supply chain simulations have long served as educational tools for understanding demand variability and the bullwhip effect.
For example, the beer distribution game demonstrates these phenomena in simplified settings, whereas real-world supply
chains are more complex. This research-in-progress paper describes the development of a forecasting decision support
dashboard integrated into a more realistic supply chain simulation game, testing three forecasting algorithms, Croston’s
method, Exponential Smoothing, and Random Forest, across two games involving a six-tier supply chain over 240 rounds.
Our preliminary results reveal that forecasting accuracy degrades substantially upstream through the supply chain, with Mean
Absolute Percentage Error increasing from under 2% at Tier 1 to over 80% at Tier 5, regardless of the algorithm used. These
findings suggest that forecasts alone may be insufficient to support decision-making in complex, multi-tier supply chains,
underscoring the need for behavioral research on how participants use forecasting tools. |
| Forthcoming: |
No |
| Language: |
English |
| Citation: |
John, Jessel and Engel, Tobias
(2026)
Beyond Forecast Accuracy: Decision Support in Supply Chain Management.
In: (Proceedings of the) 21st Midwest Association for Information Systems Conference (MWAIS) "The Future of Work: AdaptingT to the Age of AI and Automation", May 21-22, 2026, Athens, OH, USA, Paper 57 / Research in Progress.
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